What’s happening?
Last 8 July 2025 Bendigo Bank released its 2025 Mid‑Year Australian Agriculture Outlook report. It highlights cautious optimism for the next six months despite volatile trade conditions. “Growing uncertainty in the global trade environment, driven by tariff announcements from the US and China is leading to increased volatility in markets,” said Neil Burgess, Bendigo Bank Senior Manager Industry Affairs. “The largest impacts of the trade conflict and the sweeping US tariffs on Australian agriculture at this stage are generally expected to be through downstream effects, rather than directly from the 10 per cent tariff imposed by the US on Australia.”
Why it matters?
Two thirds of Australian agricultural products are exported, and Queensland producers rely on those markets. Mr Burgess added, “The recent apparent de‑escalation in trade tensions between the US and China is easing concerns slightly, but any sustained agreement appears to be a long way off, which may improve the chances of a trade deal being struck between Australia and the EU, with the added potential for significant opportunities, particularly for both Australian beef and lamb exports.”
Local Impact
Queensland’s cattle industry is shaping up for a strong second half of 2025. Rainfall has boosted pasture growth, giving producers the option to hold stock and aim for better prices. Bundaberg’s macadamia growers are seeing healthy yields with many trees reaching five years of age. Export prices are strong, driven by demand from China. Vegetable supply is improving through July after a cold start to winter slowed crop development.
By the numbers
- Winter wheat output in Queensland is set at 2.1 million tonnes, down 9% on last year
- Macadamia export prices are staying well above 2024 levels
- The Bureau of Meteorology tips above average chances of median rainfall for most of Queensland
Zoom In
“Demand for beef is set to remain firm as the US reduction in supply continues to favour Australian producers. The cattle industry is set for a big second half of 2025 with current strong export demand likely to be sustained and prices also likely to remain strong, trending marginally higher in the back half of the year,” Mr Burgess said.
Zoom Out
Across Australia cropping is mixed, lamb supply is tight and horticulture shows promise. Dairy remains under pressure but wool prices are holding steady.
What To Look For Next?
Queensland producers are watching for rainfall trends and possible trade progress with the EU that could lift beef and lamb returns.
