What’s happening?
Australia’s agricultural markets are moving in different directions across sectors according to Bendigo Bank Insights. Beef, lamb, and wool are hitting record prices as export demand surges, while grain and some horticultural products face price pressure from global competition despite improved seasonal conditions. Dairy markets are heating up with processors offering record farmgate prices to secure supply.
Strong interest from local processors and resurgent restocker demand are lifting cattle prices above the five-year average. The United States remains a major driver of export growth, with China and South Korea also recording strong volumes. In sheep, tightening supply has driven lamb and mutton prices to record levels, while wool has opened the 2025/26 season on a strong note.
Why it matters
Market movements are influencing farmgate returns, export earnings, and confidence across rural Australia. Surging cattle and lamb prices support producers and regional economies, while high wool prices defy currency changes, signalling strong underlying demand. Grain growers are balancing the boost from late July rainfall with pressure from global harvests, and horticultural exporters are navigating competition and tariff changes.
Local impact
Favourable weather is supporting pasture growth and livestock condition in many regions, underpinning price gains in the cattle and sheep sectors. For grain producers in Victoria and South Australia, late July rain provided a timely confidence lift after a delayed start to the season. Horticultural producers are adjusting to volatile input costs and increased competition in export markets, while dairy farmers are benefiting from processor competition that is driving farmgate prices higher.
By the numbers
- 43,000 tonnes – Australian beef exports to the US in July, up 22% from the previous month, a new record.
- 1,230 c/kg – National Trade Lamb Indicator, up 14.9% month-on-month and 61.4% above the five-year average.
- $10/Kg MS – reported private farmgate milk price offers as processors scramble to secure supply.
Zoom in
Cattle– Local cattle prices in July rose above the five-year average for the first time in a long period. National weekly slaughter averaged just over 150,000 head, remaining stable. Export volumes hit a new monthly record of just under 150,500 tonnes, with the US leading growth. Exports to South Korea reached nearly 21,000 tonnes, one of the highest volumes on record. Beef exports to China rose 13% month-on-month and 90% year-on-year. A favourable weather outlook and strong global demand are forecast to support further price gains in August.
Cropping– Australia’s grain markets softened over the month as seasonal conditions improved and global harvest pressure intensified. Late July rainfall boosted crop confidence, particularly in Victoria and South Australia. Wheat prices eased, with spot CBOT futures down nearly 7% and east coast values down around 2%. Barley outperformed wheat due to feedlot demand and tighter old crop supply. Canola prices remain near decile 8 levels, with potential export upside to China.
Dairy– The average southern farmgate price of major processors for 2025/26 sits at about $9.10/Kg MS, but slow producer uptake and competitive offers from smaller processors have pushed private offers above $10/Kg MS. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has approved Lactalis’ bid for Fonterra’s Australian food and consumer business. Bega has proposed a joint bid with Dutch multinational FrieslandCampina NV, while Japanese company Meiji Holdings Co is also in contention.
Horticulture– Exporters are adapting to market volatility and US tariffs, prompting Southern Hemisphere producers to diversify. South African stone fruit is nearing access to the Chinese market, but Australian exporters expect to maintain a quality advantage. Onion exports are at their lowest since 2017, affected by challenging seasons in South Australia and Tasmania and competition from India. National brown onion prices average $1.40/kg, up 9% year-on-year, while red onion prices are up 28%.
Sheep– Australian lamb prices have strengthened over recent months, with the NTLI above 1,230 c/kg. Lamb slaughter in July averaged almost 374,000 head per week, down 16.3% year-on-year. Tightening supply, winter processing slowdowns, and seasonal maintenance at processing plants have supported prices. While prices may steady in August, they are expected to remain well above the five-year average.
Wool– The 2025/26 season opened with four consecutive weeks of price rises. The AWEX EMI increased 32 cents since last season to 1,239 c/kg, the highest since week 41 of 2024/25. This is 115 cents higher than the same time last year. Despite a 60% jump in bales offered before the three-week recess, demand remained firm.
Climate and carbon– Australia’s 2024 data shows emissions are 28.2% below 2005 levels, tracking towards the 43% reduction target for 2030. The Climate Change Authority is set to recommend a 2035 target in the coming weeks, likely a 65-75% reduction from 2005 levels. The aim is to limit global warming to under 2°C above pre-industrial averages.
Zoom out
Australia’s agriculture is balancing strong export-led growth in livestock and wool with pricing challenges in cropping and horticulture. Seasonal improvements are lifting confidence, but global competition, trade dynamics, and climate targets will shape the months ahead. The mix of record exports, price volatility, and evolving climate policy is creating both opportunities and pressures for producers.
What to look for next?
Key watchpoints include August price trends for cattle and lamb, spring planting and yield potential for grain, and the Climate Change Authority’s official 2035 emissions target recommendation. Export demand from the US, China, and South Korea will remain central to market performance in the coming months.
