What’s happening?
Cattle prices are climbing sharply across Queensland as demand intensifies. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) now sits at 728c/kg, marking a 22% increase since January. Recent rainfall has spurred restocker confidence, while strong export demand is driving competition at saleyards and processing plants. However, global dynamics — including a looming Chinese tariff and Brazil’s new disease-free status — are injecting uncertainty into the outlook.
Meanwhile, Bendigo Bank’s June 2025 Agribusiness Insights reports supply-driven price hikes across lamb, softness in wool, cautiousness in grains, and underwhelming milk price openings.
Why it matters
For Central Queensland’s producers, cattle is not just another sector — it’s the region’s economic engine. Yet despite rising prices and solid demand, two key risks now loom large:
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Australia’s beef exports to China may trigger a 12% safeguard tariff if volumes exceed the 191,000-tonne threshold — expected as early as late July.
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Brazil has been declared Foot and Mouth Disease free, opening new export channels to Asia and positioning itself as a direct competitor to Australian beef.
“Australia may be close to triggering a safeguard tariff in July or August,” Bendigo Bank warns. “China will most likely consider a deal with Brazil to supplement supply.”
Local Impact
In Rockhampton and surrounds, cattle producers are experiencing a surge in buyer interest, particularly from restockers. While southern processors have ventured north to source cattle, many are now fully stocked, potentially easing price pressure over coming weeks.
Rainfall has lifted optimism among graziers, but producers remain cautious about export conditions and processor capacity.
By the Numbers:
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📈 728c/kg – Current EYCI, up 22% YTD
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🚢 Beef exports to China up 27% YTD — over 78,000 tonnes by April, approaching the 191,000-tonne quota
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🌏 Brazil’s FMD-free status could open trade routes into Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, impacting Australia’s market share
Zoom In
Cattle isn’t the only sector shifting this month:
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Lamb prices hit new records — topped three times in one week — due to May disruptions and reduced winter supply.
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Dairy farmers are disappointed, with opening prices averaging $8.80/kg MS, below expectations. That said, prices may lift due to a forecast third consecutive production decline.
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Cropping is at a critical juncture. Victoria and South Australia are awaiting rain, while global markets remain cautious.
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Wool prices rose in May but are likely to fall in June as global demand softens.
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Horticulture is steady, with fresh produce demand rising and fruit/veg prices softening from April highs.
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Climate and carbon planning is also in focus, with Bendigo Bank presenting three key ways sustainability will shape farming futures.
Zoom Out
The geopolitical backdrop matters more than ever:
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Brazil’s disease-free status, now backed by tracking systems from birth to slaughter, is changing global perceptions and eligibility for high-end markets like the EU.
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The Port of Darwin, currently leased to China’s Landbridge Group, remains under scrutiny. Ambassador Xiao Qian stated the lease was “secured through an open and transparent bidding process.” Still, the federal government is in talks with Australian firms to explore alternatives.
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China–US trade tensions and a shrinking US herd continue to favour Australia — for now.
What To Look For Next?
Watch cattle export trends, processor activity, and wool market performance. The next two weeks of rainfall will determine grain market direction.
EOFY remains a strategic checkpoint for many primary producers. While Farm Management Deposits (FMDs) offer long-term benefits, all eyes are currently on pricing, processing capacity, and international shifts that could define the rest of 2025.
