What’s happening?
Australian agriculture is ending the year on a high note. The November Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Monthly Commodity Update has confirmed strong performances across beef, grain, dairy and horticulture, setting both producers and consumers up for a positive start to 2026.
Australian cattle exports have reached the second-highest monthly volume on record, while the third-largest winter grain crop in history is taking shape. Favourable seasonal conditions are supporting beef production in northern regions, and fruit and vegetable prices are expected to ease in time for Christmas.
Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Senior Insights Analyst, Sean Hickey, said the outlook remains upbeat across key agricultural sectors.“Australian beef exports continue to increase in leaps and bounds with ongoing high export demand seeing many processing centres keen to lock in supply well in advance to ensure they can meet international requirements,” Mr Hickey said.
“Seasonal conditions for beef production are forecast to be favourable in northern regions heading into next year which should keep restocker demand firm, feedlots active and producers holding onto stock.”
Why it matters
The findings reflect a strong finish for Australian producers, especially in Queensland, Western Australia and Victoria.
Improved seasonal conditions and export demand are strengthening market resilience, while record or near-record harvests are helping stabilise food prices ahead of the holiday season.
“On the grains front, we have lifted Australia’s 2025/26 winter crop production estimate by 1.2 per cent to 61.8 million metric tonnes, making this year the third-largest winter crop on record, with a record national barley crop now all but assured,” Mr Hickey added.
Local impact
Regional economies in Queensland, Western Australia, and Victoria stand to gain the most from strong commodity performance. In northern Queensland, steady cattle prices and firm restocker demand are sustaining local jobs and supply chains.
WA’s ongoing grain success is reinforcing its position as a national leader in cropping innovation. Consumers will see the benefits too, with fruit and vegetable prices expected to fall as supply stabilises through December.
By the numbers
-
139,286 tonnes of Australian beef exported in October, a 7% rise from last year and the second-highest month on record.
-
61.8 million metric tonnes of national winter crop forecast, up 1.2%, making it the third-largest on record.
-
53% of cattle processed in October came from Queensland, confirming its lead role in national beef production.
-
Western Australia is set for its fourth 20-million-tonne harvest in five years, a milestone now considered the “new normal”.
-
Citrus yields lifted 10-15% above last season, with table grape production forecast at 230,000 tonnes.
-
Avocado supply continues to exceed expectations, pushing domestic consumption above 5kg per person.
Zoom in
In Queensland, strong export demand and improved feed conditions are keeping cattle producers confident. Feedlots are active, and restocker demand remains high. In Western Australia, favourable weather and a shift away from sheep production are driving record harvests and transforming land use across key cropping regions. In horticulture, mango and stonefruit prices are easing as supply ramps up before Christmas. Mr Hickey said the market is balancing after a slow start.
“Mango pricing has finally started to ease just in time for Christmas after a slow start to the season and other summer favourites such as nectarines and peaches are also slowly coming to market,” he said.
Almond crops are also performing strongly, supported by favourable export conditions due to China’s tariffs on US almonds.
“Strong pricing signals from processors due to China’s elevated tariffs on the US will ensure Australian almond exports retain an advantage into the Chinese market,” Mr Hickey noted.
Zoom out
The broader agricultural landscape shows Australia’s export sectors holding steady despite global market fluctuations. Beef, grain and horticulture are all benefiting from a combination of export opportunities, improved growing conditions and domestic demand stability. Feed grain prices may come under pressure as harvest volumes rise, but strong demand for high-quality wheat and barley exports should hold up price support into early 2026.
Dairy and wool markets are stabilising, with milk production recovering in the northern states and Tasmania, and wool prices remaining 25% higher than last year. Global milk oversupply continues to limit price growth, but improved feed availability offers relief for farmers managing cost pressures.
What to look for next
Industry attention will turn to how quickly new-season grain flows to market and whether current price strength holds once harvest pressure increases.
Beef producers will monitor restocker activity and export demand into the first quarter of 2026, while horticulture sectors focus on maintaining steady pricing and export performance amid high yields.
